TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,006,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,073,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,006,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 490 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82ba…0a52backed Yes37c55,116$20,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,631.151540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked No63c35,561$22,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,311.2720661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d05…0ff6backed Yes66c31,633$20,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,840.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed No56c27,873$15,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,480.921729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-43.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes56c23,481$13,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,307.1220238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes30c20,391$6,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,189.7311837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No35c16,419$5,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,681.0919645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No20c15,566$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.8441540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed No30c14,700$4,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,384.16219.4%12 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…131bbacked Yes28c13,520$3,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,683.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+76.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed No73c12,714$9,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,238.2747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13b…b220backed No19c11,960$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7816…b85ebacked No23c11,800$2,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,761.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x223a…286fbacked Yes63c11,772$7,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,312.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+99.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes72c11,578$8,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,294.6122434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No33c11,382$3,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,701.552147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed No58c9,789$5,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,715.753545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed Yes49c9,734$4,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,950.61926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a1…6877backed Yes65c8,196$5,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes29c7,873$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,613.2713145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78c…0c5abacked Yes62c7,729$4,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No33c6,976$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.9216836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0542…50eebacked Yes36c6,718$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes79c6,415$5,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.599053.3%48 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17a8…e61fbacked Yes71c6,059$4,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.771154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Yes25c6,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.991376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.34per pick43cpaid+61.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7447…c4c9backed Yes76c5,552$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Yes60c5,066$3,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.247436.5%27 W · 47 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Yes70c5,039$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.96349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x493c…f027backed Yes69c4,950$3,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.381580%12 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes28c4,879$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,536.2417648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No40c4,786$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.049045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed No71c4,583$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.14738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes47c4,519$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,374.6518629.6%55 W · 131 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No27c4,489$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.052454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No13c4,210$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.666134.4%21 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes27c4,161$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick24cpaid+154.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c3,930$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.459947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c3,920$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.135679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Yes63c3,723$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.956759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes61c3,718$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.272330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb8…54afbacked No72c3,700$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b71…f772backed No72c3,600$2,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,577.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b5…82b2backed No72c3,400$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No26c3,333$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.0613430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e8b…a018backed Yes77c3,250$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes65c3,211$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Yes62c3,158$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.1426547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes29c3,141$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.464311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No39c3,115$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.5315252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6371…46c8backed Yes77c3,100$2,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+84.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0339…5b2cbacked Yes52c3,063$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.93250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca33…918cbacked Yes43c2,995$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.291241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes63c2,931$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.489136.3%33 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd81…fe97backed No72c2,820$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300a…6108backed Yes77c2,800$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No34c2,797$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.71330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x95ad…9921backed Yes77c2,650$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes46c2,611$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.412213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c3…eb07backed No19c2,587$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes45c2,529$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.483923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007731.2%24 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes74c2,500$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6507042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No42c2,485$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.028047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes58c2,360$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.273839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes62c2,240$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.033119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd914…4ac4backed No72c2,176$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.961145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed No46c2,172$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.18351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No26c2,147$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.261145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Yes62c2,100$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.481650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes79c2,082$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.416339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked No20c2,000$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39814837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes71c1,897$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.9652828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2800…4dd0backed Yes61c1,802$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Yes63c1,797$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.644266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes65c1,777$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.831631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked No27c1,761$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.772814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6416…18d7backed No37c1,754$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.581225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No13c1,746$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.032147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac0…1a25backed Yes69c1,744$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.19475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6658…8afdbacked Yes69c1,738$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.883100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes29c1,717$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.184341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No20c1,698$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.141833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No22c1,686$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.636230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No11c1,638$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.49616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaaa…81d6backed Yes31c1,621$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+224.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes30c1,615$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.24551.1%23 W · 22 L+9.9wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+235.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3126…4ff7backed Yes70c1,600$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5a…33eebacked Yes70c1,590$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…8a3ebacked Yes61c1,565$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.26825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No6c1,523$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.472725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No29c1,449$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.341844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No50c1,433$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.9714342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c1,424$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3623024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No40c1,411$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.3929439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No38c1,384$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.312934.5%10 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefe9…7aaabacked Yes74c1,347$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde92…b39abacked Yes41c1,285$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No16c1,278$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.83478.5%4 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.