TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Dak Prescott win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,658 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0218…52c0backed Yes0c6,168$10 inLost-$10.341618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6708…27e8backed Yes0c6,033$24 inLost-$24.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c4,237$19 inLost-$19.1421227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,971$20 inLost-$19.775679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes1c1,075$10 inLost-$10.341735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid-6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4886…f7cdbacked Yes11c908.04$103 inLost-$103.361127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc04c…d0fdbacked Yes15c662.84$100 inLost-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Yes4c506.85$21 inLost-$20.5317348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3991…596fbacked Yes11c458.69$50 inLost-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef6…5afdbacked Yes3c443.16$13 inLost-$12.521315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b5…8541backed Yes9c323.39$28 inLost-$27.894837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes13c217.7$28 inLost-$28.228631.4%27 W · 59 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes5c217$12 inLost-$11.6620238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes9c174.5$15 inLost-$15.052634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fe…c2c2backed Yes17c89.45$15 inLost-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe615…6819backed Yes14c86.33$12 inLost-$1213149.6%65 W · 66 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.