TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Baker Mayfield win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,512 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes0c9,171$10 inLost-$10.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-32.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…4e46backed Yes2c7,488$142 inLost-$142.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Yes20c3,144$618 inLost-$618.136349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes0c2,849$12 inLost-$11.51310%0 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,286$86 inLost-$85.715679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,634$27 inLost-$26.8752828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Yes13c1,531$200 inLost-$2002450%12 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No79c1,525$1,208 inWon+$317.1822434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed Yes17c1,455$253 inLost-$253.4813842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4398…e12bbacked Yes13c1,100$145 inLost-$144.991145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes1c818.51$11 inLost-$11.22300%0 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes6c748.51$42 inLost-$422634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…24d4backed Yes8c637.22$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcff…a5d5backed Yes2c586.75$11 inLost-$11.2511933.6%40 W · 79 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes2c577.67$13 inLost-$13.2421227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes9c529.03$50 inLost-$502429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb240…1fe1backed Yes4c495.69$20 inLost-$202416.7%4 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-69.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x030e…20ebbacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost-$503231.3%10 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db1…35a9backed Yes4c326.81$14 inLost-$14.495536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa310…4c56backed Yes8c297.99$25 inLost-$253938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc17…5883backed Yes8c297.61$23 inLost-$22.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3701…ce16backed No80c275.03$219 inWon+$56.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+93.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes5c248.69$12 inLost-$11.69947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Yes21c240.33$50 inLost-$5018843.1%81 W · 107 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No75c221.31$166 inWon+$55.3314342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14c2…26fabacked Yes7c220.81$16 inLost-$16.2156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f3…c262backed Yes10c208.92$20 inLost-$202944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes13c201.97$27 inLost-$26.665339.6%21 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked Yes21c200$42 inLost-$42.214818.2%27 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa910…12c3backed Yes20c200$40 inLost-$401533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf7d…6366backed Yes7c175.4$12 inLost-$12.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes15c175.15$26 inLost-$2631032.6%101 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes13c150.12$20 inLost-$19.862213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+167.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes17c146.38$25 inLost-$257631.6%24 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No76c137.06$104 inWon+$32.9128337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf20…e158backed Yes25c120$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…bb27backed Yes25c107.4$27 inLost-$26.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked No75c100$75 inWon+$251942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…d195backed Yes35c95.08$33 inLost-$3350%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff5…44cbbacked Yes31c86.34$26 inLost-$26.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f8…ab6bbacked Yes31c84.88$26 inLost-$26.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.