NFL · resolved market

Will Josh Allen win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33dd906869981227e2b2711b03aa578e4fbec0cd618a3905d364a4ca07d83b46

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $304,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $216,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,165 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe78f…73d8backed Yes	2c	102,865$1,952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,952.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	0c	25,464$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.73	149	26.2%39 W · 110 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes	4c	16,714$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.57	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes	14c	16,135$2,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,324.69	204	40.7%83 W · 121 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-17%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	10,627$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.24	567	9.9%56 W · 511 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	12c	5,357$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.49	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	3,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-95.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed Yes	11c	3,035$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a67…0e18backed Yes	1c	2,909$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	14c	2,567$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.79	224	34.4%77 W · 147 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,552$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.11	230	24.3%56 W · 174 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes	12c	2,340$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.67	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes	26c	2,287$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.1	131	45.8%60 W · 71 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Yes	18c	2,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	11c	1,512$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.43	143	42%60 W · 83 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	5c	1,381$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.03	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	13c	1,313$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.02	88	18.2%16 W · 72 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x413c…1904backed Yes	9c	1,284$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.11	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c96…abc5backed Yes	16c	1,227$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-4.3wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	8c	1,075$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.49	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+167.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes	20c	1,069$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.7	202	38.6%78 W · 124 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes	6c	1,037$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.22	186	29.6%55 W · 131 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3da…4b5ebacked Yes	9c	1,011$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.57	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	27cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed Yes	11c	909.14$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.84	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x846c…e2acbacked Yes	1c	731.53$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd496…9c86backed Yes	13c	730$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.9	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	9c	689.98$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.65	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	7c	686.67$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.15	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	6c	593.63$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	562.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	144	4.9%7 W · 137 L	-10.8wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes	24c	479.99$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.01	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	470.76$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	30	0%0 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c3…05d5backed Yes	18c	435.72$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…5c32backed Yes	11c	383.17$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1027…3758backed Yes	8c	363.76$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1387…fcadbacked Yes	25c	360$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-38%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…fdcabacked Yes	28c	300$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	38cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ad…e142backed Yes	17c	294.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14e…f856backed Yes	19c	260.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	59.4%41 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	115	47%54 W · 61 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17d3…9147backed Yes	8c	223.86$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+70.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Yes	15c	222.33$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.75	92	53.3%49 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73da…8c9bbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.38	50	28%14 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd425…7518backed Yes	16c	197.5$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91f0…0fd6backed Yes	19c	185.32$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.01	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+118.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	11c	181$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	488	47.5%232 W · 256 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	12c	172.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ba…8497backed Yes	29c	164$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.28	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0539…70f9backed Yes	16c	154.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ed7…767ebacked Yes	11c	131.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40df…a6adbacked Yes	23c	130.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…20ebbacked Yes	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	116$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	368	26.9%99 W · 269 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7be6…436ebacked Yes	19c	104.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	73c	103.75$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.26	415	40.2%167 W · 248 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes	26c	99.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-7.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8c2…a30cbacked Yes	26c	95.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b8…fd36backed Yes	17c	95.02$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Yes	29c	89.81$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	375	56.3%211 W · 164 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aaf…2866backed Yes	11c	87.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed No	65c	85.71$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404a…9446backed Yes	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x686a…c769backed Yes	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf811…69babacked Yes	30c	67.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	62c	63.94$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.08	281	51.6%145 W · 136 L	+20.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x11d5…3408backed Yes	17c	59.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	73c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	323	47.4%153 W · 170 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No	76c	41.9$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	135	47.4%64 W · 71 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60f4…f275backed No	72c	41.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.67	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be2…f72abacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	30c	35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	184	27.7%51 W · 133 L	-18.4wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Josh Allen win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event