TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,780 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…4173backed Yes29c5,000$1,450 inLost-$1,45016036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x438a…62e5backed Yes15c4,000$608 inLost-$607.991625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes20c1,528$300 inLost-$3006536.9%24 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No71c1,499$1,063 inWon+$436.423043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,391$89 inLost-$89.175679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed No78c1,389$1,079 inWon+$309.753138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes13c1,200$156 inLost-$15618629.6%55 W · 131 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Yes12c1,038$120 inLost-$1204546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes25c746$185 inLost-$185.1111837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No71c700.43$496 inWon+$204.0521227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No73c613.01$450 inWon+$163.4822434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes25c525.32$133 inLost-$132.895824.1%14 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Yes37c500$185 inLost-$184.7516139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes23c482$113 inLost-$113.0720238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c446.18$11 inLost-$10.9952828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c431.68$16 inLost-$16.1300%0 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2072…1201backed Yes5c427.57$20 inLost-$20219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-64.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No66c398.81$261 inWon+$137.598428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf20…e158backed Yes29c347.26$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No79c300$238 inWon+$62.12653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47de…410ebacked Yes34c296.7$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No68c254.06$172 inWon+$82.169045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes29c251.13$73 inLost-$72.6314342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c249.24$49 inLost-$49.259947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked No71c205.2$147 inWon+$58.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes28c205$57 inLost-$57.4831543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Yes15c200$30 inLost-$309253.3%49 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed No71c200$143 inWon+$57.313842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd425…7518backed Yes14c199.99$28 inLost-$284528.9%13 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes15c197.9$30 inLost-$29.984816.7%8 W · 40 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-63.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No71c187.01$133 inWon+$53.76785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes16c175.89$28 inLost-$28.182213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+167.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No78c164.08$127 inWon+$36.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f6…3774backed Yes39c158.99$62 inLost-$62.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost-$206839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd496…9c86backed Yes14c139.36$20 inLost-$20.032839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a0…2916backed Yes13c86$11 inLost-$11.185642.9%24 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c70$12 inLost-$12.1418427.7%51 W · 133 L-18.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes28c63$18 inLost-$17.9248847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff5…0429backed Yes34c59.32$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…bb27backed Yes29c40$12 inLost-$11.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdb…ca53backed Yes46c32.75$15 inLost-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No67c30$20 inWon+$9.974551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked No60c25$15 inWon+$1011544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x165e…5ec7backed Yes40c25$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.