TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Lamar Jackson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,484 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x118a…4a46backed Yes3c3,348$88 inLost-$88.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,823$60 inLost-$59.795679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed Yes2c1,836$39 inLost-$38.553531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c56…269fbacked Yes10c1,399$138 inLost-$137.64835.4%17 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x11a0…f797backed Yes11c1,139$123 inLost-$122.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Yes6c1,075$65 inLost-$64.516755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ed…a6c8backed Yes10c1,046$100 inLost-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5f…8869backed Yes12c793.21$95 inLost-$95520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c682.29$11 inLost-$10.548818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x323e…63d5backed Yes8c625$50 inLost-$504757.4%27 W · 20 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No79c566$447 inWon+$118.7641540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef5…a454backed Yes3c501.45$15 inLost-$14.986625.8%17 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…651dbacked Yes24c422.01$100 inLost-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes17c390$68 inLost-$67.75129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes17c300.28$52 inLost-$5215851.9%82 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3f…77b7backed Yes10c156.77$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes19c110$21 inLost-$20.859053.3%48 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c2…26fabacked Yes14c104.28$15 inLost-$15156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c100.1$77 inWon+$23.029947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes17c100$17 inLost-$172035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No78c50$39 inWon+$1114342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4c7…345fbacked No76c50$38 inWon+$12580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.