TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Jordan Love win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde6d…8eb6backed Yes0c17,567$18 inLost-$17.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae56…3acdbacked Yes0c14,857$15 inLost-$14.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d9…5d00backed Yes0c14,857$15 inLost-$14.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df5…7349backed Yes0c12,286$12 inLost-$12.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f9…84bebacked Yes0c12,286$12 inLost-$12.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5b…e4babacked Yes0c10,790$11 inLost-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ee…3d5fbacked Yes0c10,780$11 inLost-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c4,397$37 inLost-$36.5521227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,802$40 inLost-$39.75679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes2c3,495$58 inLost-$58.425930.5%18 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes6c2,644$160 inLost-$160.451030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…c54abacked Yes1c2,200$11 inLost-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes5c1,636$85 inLost-$84.793119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes3c1,422$44 inLost-$43.8222434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes4c889.04$33 inLost-$33.185824.1%14 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8f…a6bbbacked Yes5c778.34$38 inLost-$38.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes1c736.65$11 inLost-$10.9370%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x855d…5342backed Yes7c726.21$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes4c407.57$16 inLost-$16.3711837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa4…7270backed Yes3c402.53$11 inLost-$11.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84e9…2285backed Yes7c400.6$30 inLost-$30.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes5c257.77$14 inLost-$13.7520238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes6c245.01$14 inLost-$14.0118629.6%55 W · 131 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed7…f59dbacked Yes19c103.25$20 inLost-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+282.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes17c90.71$15 inLost-$15540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.