Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b0239149756e9cd15dbe0f9fbe295160075f26cd46ba3f537d932a3cc90ddae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 28c | 2,019$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.3 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 1,652$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.83 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 1,388$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.87 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 1,315$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.69 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 1,035$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 22c | 934.81$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.96 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 882.53$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 18c | 863.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.14 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 778.18$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 659.19$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 636.46$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.11 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 547.37$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 22c | 503.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.61 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 46c | 483.67$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.67 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 454.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.22 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 50c | 430.21$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.33 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 419$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 11c | 395.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 7c | 393.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.63 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 55c | 362$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 11c | 350.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.6 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 343.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 333.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 322.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 5c | 319.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.58 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 313.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 16c | 290$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.44 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 67c | 289.34$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 272.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 257.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 247$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 224.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 11c | 199.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.75 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 197.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 186.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 10c | 183.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 69c | 181.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 175.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 173.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 9c | 173.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 170.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 61c | 163.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 160.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 60c | 148.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 77c | 137.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 55c | 136.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 30c | 136$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…89b7backed No | 30c | 131.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 68c | 129.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 124.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 16c | 124.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…55c6backed Yes | 13c | 119.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 118.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 12c | 117.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 113.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 23c | 111.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 9c | 110.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 106$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 41c | 104.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 41c | 102.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 101.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 21c | 92.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 15c | 88.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 69c | 86.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 13c | 84.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 35c | 83.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 25c | 78.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 17c | 76.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 71.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 67.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 68c | 63.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked No | 38c | 61.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 33c | 60.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…c431backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 53.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 28c | 51.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 50.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 46.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…1f4dbacked No | 53c | 41.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 77c | 37.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 37.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 30c | 36.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 34.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 32.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 46c | 32.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 53c | 32.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 51c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed No | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.