Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x678243eaf6a35ee3d405ef74372b4e14abee0897aa4c47a99deaa675d9e60cbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 590.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 546.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…4501backed Yes | 14c | 244.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 10c | 217.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 15c | 205.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 14c | 190.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 25c | 170.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 161.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 23c | 154.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 13c | 146.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 138.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 137.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 20c | 131.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 117.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 114.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 23c | 106.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 90.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cc…58b7backed Yes | 16c | 80.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 75.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 20c | 55.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 47.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 77c | 45.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 79c | 45.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 75c | 37.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…b615backed No | 74c | 36.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 80c | 34.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 75c | 24.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…091abacked No | 77c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.