Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b2ace42f8d2d92daf8958ad0c97d6805c5c94fe10912a1390324efff8b35208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 1,499$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.89 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 1,473$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.65 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,320$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 35c | 1,123$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.82 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 34c | 962.59$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.08 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 923.77$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 788.15$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 740$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 729.82$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 9c | 701.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 690.2$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 666.28$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.92 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 592.55$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 34c | 501.89$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 460.74$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 446.09$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 438.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 432.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 417.91$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 416.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 37c | 398.4$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 380.21$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…20e8backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 70c | 287.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 73c | 285.95$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 45c | 261.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 255.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 239$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 41c | 220.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 38c | 209.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 64c | 202.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 202$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 34c | 190.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 190.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 75c | 185.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 60c | 184.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 183.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 176.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 57c | 175.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 174.39$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 79c | 174$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 173.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 173.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 53c | 171.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 170.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 154.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 59c | 148.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 77c | 145.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 132.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 59c | 130.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 29c | 127.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 125.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 64c | 123.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 121.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 119$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 118.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 113.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 111.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 106$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 105.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063e…3ac1backed No | 65c | 105.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 64c | 105.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 104.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 103.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…d4f5backed Yes | 22c | 102.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 49c | 102.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 101.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 101.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 49c | 100.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…2c70backed Yes | 25c | 99.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 53c | 98.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 97.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 29c | 94.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 31c | 92.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 42c | 91.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed No | 55c | 90.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 90.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 89.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 63c | 87.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 51c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 41c | 84.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 47c | 83.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd8…5f65backed Yes | 45c | 83.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 49c | 82.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 82.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 80.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 22c | 78.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 78.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.