TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes21c510.42$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.683735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes30c388.1$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.881741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes29c305.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c304.53$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.356336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes17c303.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes18c299.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb542…6cfebacked Yes35c287.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes25c283.86$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.867842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No78c272.14$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.54757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No72c262.19$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.364358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c232.19$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c204.42$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea55…558fbacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No68c197$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2720065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes20c194.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.291612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed No73c188.12$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c181$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1835258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c175$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c165$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.732748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes29c161$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1610320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59f7…b535backed Yes28c160$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.42540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c156.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0126632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes29c143.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes22c139.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.236731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c138.71$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6828558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed No73c131.07$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.231163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f0…12eebacked Yes29c130.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes34c130$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.084233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes26c126.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c111.36$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.164761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes18c110.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No69c106.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.897560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c105.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3611039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No69c104.73$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.573961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No70c104.58$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.964450%22 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes27c104.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.488636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No70c103.73$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.417058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c102.81$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c100.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.451225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c90.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7427521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes27c87.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7310837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c85.93$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7415558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes26c85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.97020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No76c78.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1813748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No69c78.55$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0739231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes30c76.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.977345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7f…dfd5backed Yes13c74.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes27c72.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No72c69.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.38672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No77c67.73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.892657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No76c67.62$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.232437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes30c66.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c62.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2421844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No67c58.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4112040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5761…f951backed Yes32c57.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c54.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7322355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c000backed Yes30c52.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes33c52.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-72.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes28c51.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.387951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes24c50.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.273943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes31c50.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6212238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes28c50.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.117345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No75c50.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5411045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No70c49.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6414553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes28c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb58…478abacked Yes31c43.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe724…33c6backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.64266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes33c39.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked No79c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.772075%15 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes32c34.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.265756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No70c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0816850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No68c32.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4416051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No70c31.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.434100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1a…ff36backed No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.35945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.93174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.54564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No71c29.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7714656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked No75c29.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No76c27.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No74c27.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0310640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed No73c25.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.984100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0173…d05dbacked No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9414954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No68c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4315954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.