TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e10…a68abacked Yes50c827.45$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.02837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes54c596.65$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.652653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes48c380.1$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.11741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No41c356.24$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No49c245.59$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6426355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a37…5a89backed Yes49c232.64$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.654100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes62c211.55$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.442638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes49c203.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.821631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes70c199.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.992665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb542…6cfebacked No51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No53c192.59$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.547560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes48c185.63$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.983243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c181$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes67c168.22$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2814842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes50c157$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.55749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes46c156.8$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No33c156.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f0…12eebacked Yes47c155.18$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c153.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0644428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes80c151.58$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c139.53$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes49c139.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No51c128.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5646330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c118.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.562433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes51c118.03$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.03450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No51c113.71$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6211647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8da…38bcbacked No55c112.64$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes54c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.111636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes42c110$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.954037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No54c109.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.273961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No18c108$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes75c107.64$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4411039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes52c105.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.56336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c105$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.931152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No57c103.73$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.217058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5154934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59f7…b535backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.52540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes45c97.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9818662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No56c96.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.214450%22 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes58c95$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.531540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No56c87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.721968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No47c86.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.366437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No53c85.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.815558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No52c83.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.754266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa012…f896backed Yes35c83.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c82.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0327521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No57c81.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes57c80.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.889337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No60c79.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.085064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No41c78.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4513748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes73c76.96$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.928235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes53c76.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.918636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes52c76.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.561723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No50c73.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8544138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No55c71.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.432437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No52c70.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.42369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No46c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5511045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No47c69.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes52c68.78$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No54c65.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.24761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No54c64.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7516450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No47c64.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c63.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.641,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No46c62.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.42850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes41c61.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.15341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes44c61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.410837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No49c60.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6722355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes54c60.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.955646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.463063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No22c59.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No41c53.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce3b…0b8fbacked Yes75c52.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes51c51.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.333943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c51.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No47c50.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.973221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4710733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.517345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes40c49.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7812238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c45.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes48c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.297030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No49c44.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.985141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No59c43.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.837842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No57c43.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.771070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No30c42.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5812249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No49c40.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d8…a908backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.44146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No60c38.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.356566.2%43 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No59c38.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.816462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x059f…d749backed No48c38.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes78c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.362075%15 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68e…a093backed Yes54c37.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed No55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes43c35.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.441741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.