World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf57cdad083ffb570961f460bc4f8d95401795b8cca13c93f15a7c972d49b0669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 901.18$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 23c | 493.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 353.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 19c | 326.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 289.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 24c | 236.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 214.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 207.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed Yes | 19c | 204.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 11c | 179.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 22c | 178.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 171.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 14c | 150.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 149.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…9fa5backed Yes | 25c | 142.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 142.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 134.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 133.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 124.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 20c | 117.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 17c | 116.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 116.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 12c | 109.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 107.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 80c | 103.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 102.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 20c | 100.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 19c | 94.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 94.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 94.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…6a56backed Yes | 20c | 92.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 16c | 91.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 22c | 89.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 88.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 87.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 18c | 86.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 85.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 78c | 77.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 22c | 69.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 67.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 22c | 66.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 17c | 63.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…34e1backed Yes | 19c | 61.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 61.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 57.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 22c | 57.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 28c | 53.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 53.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 19c | 52.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 77c | 51.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 45.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…c424backed No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 24.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 72c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 79c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.