Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d54797bc22bf276356adc3880c68a4e9f2d09245ea78fb634e5ac49f5d7f89c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 12c | 3,514$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.31 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 62c | 487.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 25c | 456.07$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 440.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 413.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 26c | 388.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 357.6$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 78c | 338.79$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 328.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 32c | 282.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 241.35$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 240.32$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 38c | 236.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 211.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 198.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 188.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 41c | 183.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 182$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 12c | 159.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 140.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 129.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed Yes | 12c | 129.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 127$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 110.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 60c | 103.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 94.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…7e87backed Yes | 40c | 94.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 88.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 85.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 85.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 81.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 78.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 76.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 75.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 28c | 72.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 36c | 72.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 70.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…f980backed No | 73c | 68.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 67.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 77c | 64.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 56.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 56.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffa…b3c6backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 40c | 46.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 46.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 45.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 41.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 40c | 40.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 40c | 39.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 36.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 37c | 34.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 32.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 31.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 67c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…b2dcbacked No | 75c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 67c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 70c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.