Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0506e6abfca74f88c0ab932cdaabc97ee9261ee591d40ff2a1d1a05cbfb94722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 63c | 1,474$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.31 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 387.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 356.63$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 53c | 342.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 47c | 326.95$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.61 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 316.31$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 307.47$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 306.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 68c | 281$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 280.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.72 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 51c | 261.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 240.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.47 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 235.36$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 224.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 218$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 211.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 180.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 171.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 48c | 169.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…eb84backed Yes | 54c | 169$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed Yes | 46c | 167.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 167.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Yes | 60c | 165.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 49c | 164.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 57c | 148.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 49c | 148.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 147$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…1a44backed Yes | 66c | 145.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 144.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 139.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 56c | 138.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 137$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed No | 72c | 125.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 123.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 117.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 115.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 29c | 113.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 31c | 110.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 107.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 103.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 98.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 30c | 85.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 16c | 81.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 80.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 79c | 69.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 58c | 68.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 19c | 65.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 63.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 46c | 61.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 61.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 61c | 56.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 55.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 72c | 52.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 50c | 47.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 59c | 47.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 46.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 47c | 46.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 46c | 46.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 65c | 46.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 43c | 46.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 42.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffa…b3c6backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 27c | 41.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 48c | 40.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 38.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 36.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 36.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…b01cbacked Yes | 31c | 35.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 41c | 35.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 51c | 34.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…9542backed Yes | 51c | 31.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 43c | 30.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 75c | 30.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ff…f3e6backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 29.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 29.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked No | 79c | 29.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.