Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204b0eed4fe2d12a502fbcda2b4ad019376b957475a9d7de4ec6da0d8e5fa7b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 889.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 76c | 818.1$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.04 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 36c | 778.87$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.88 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 546$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 53c | 519.33$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.16 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 472.93$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 336.64$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 296.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 289.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 71c | 288.54$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 22c | 270.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 242.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 227.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 225.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 214.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 211.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 204.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 73c | 203.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.11 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 180.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 159.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 156.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 156.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…eb84backed Yes | 24c | 140.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 59c | 138.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 125.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 9c | 122.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 112.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 22c | 112.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 111.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 18c | 105.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 19c | 103.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 99.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 98.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 33c | 94.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 22c | 94.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 78c | 94.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 84.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 83.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked No | 62c | 77.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 76.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…1a44backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 77c | 65.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 64.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 64.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 19c | 62.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 25c | 59.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 77c | 56.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 52.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 68c | 50.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 42c | 48.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 29c | 38.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 30c | 37.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 46c | 34.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 56c | 33.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 77c | 29.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 41c | 28.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 77c | 27.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 52c | 23.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 62c | 21.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ff…f3e6backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.