Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x556ab57eabf54189aea4f62dcae4cbeb30b459b0d252bbe1bb8b124935037438
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 43c | 3,581$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.76 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 2,261$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.25 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 1,815$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 49c | 1,455$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.55 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 36c | 1,401$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.17 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 1,272$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.76 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 1,185$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.12 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,183$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 1,088$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.07 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 989.4$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.73 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 697.57$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 480$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 475.92$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 454.89$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 423.28$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 51c | 406.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.66 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 55c | 380.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.15 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 31c | 352.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 305.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 51c | 289.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 65c | 276.03$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 275.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 41c | 271.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 262.21$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 69c | 256.49$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 78c | 253.58$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 233.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 231.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 224.6$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 224.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 62c | 222.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed No | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 184.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 179.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 167.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 72c | 163.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 157.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 46c | 138.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 136.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 38c | 128.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 119.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 66c | 116.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 114$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 111$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 41c | 105.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7eb3backed Yes | 43c | 103.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 63c | 101.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 51c | 100.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 100.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…31a1backed Yes | 43c | 98.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 92.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 91.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 56c | 89.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 85.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77d…28bcbacked Yes | 43c | 83.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 81.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 76.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 68c | 64.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 48c | 61.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 57.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 57.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 57c | 56.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 44c | 56.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 56.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 61c | 56.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 56.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 55.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 55.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 54.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 43c | 54.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 56c | 53.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 51c | 53.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 54c | 52.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 44c | 52.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 47c | 49.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 46.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 23c | 46.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 61c | 43.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 40c | 42.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 40.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 44c | 38.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 35c | 35.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 43c | 34.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 34.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…68b0backed Yes | 29c | 34.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.