Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa80e37363be561ab2008edbae1275be32a565d008a8412bb1b7f1382523212a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 2,185$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,058$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 6c | 1,233$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 18c | 1,049$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.41 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 16c | 846.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 11c | 690.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 11c | 461.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 408$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 335.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 278.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 242.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 229.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 10c | 193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 181.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 22c | 162.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 161.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 11c | 160.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 12c | 156.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 153.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 13c | 151.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 146.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 20c | 140.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 134.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 23c | 132.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 123.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 122.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 22c | 122.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 112.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 18c | 99.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 18c | 85.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 65.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 27.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 22.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 78c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.