Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2249d9b6d0688626b6cab220f62ecd853c4fc357911595de201e32be404a441e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,179$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,026$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 850.45$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 759.51$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 66c | 686.67$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.1 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 669.3$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 570.41$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 555.03$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 455.85$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 454.94$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 440.56$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.32 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 357.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 312.41$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 307.44$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 279.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 8c | 272.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 246.05$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 11c | 200.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 196.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 196.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 64c | 181.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 173.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 43c | 162.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 156.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 153$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 153$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 35c | 148.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 143.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 139$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 136.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 128.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 27c | 128.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 59c | 127.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 125.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 33c | 122.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 70c | 98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 94.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 84.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 83.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 65c | 82.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 38c | 79.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 78.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 74c | 78.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 73.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 73c | 66.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 64.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 63.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 29c | 63.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 60.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 58.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 36c | 58.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 32c | 57.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…7842backed Yes | 36c | 55.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 44c | 54.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x959f…fd55backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 49.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a7…9be5backed Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 46.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 26c | 46.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 43.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 42.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 40.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 31c | 36.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 47c | 36.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 61c | 36.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 69c | 36.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 50c | 35.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 46c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 69c | 30.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…21d7backed Yes | 49c | 30.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 46c | 30.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 27.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.