Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66181e579d0186ecd7e8bcfd97220bff92727b3afc9f0a1ee5a2565e8c5b201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 401.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 196.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 177.77$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 71c | 176.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 142.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 130.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 27c | 129.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 118.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 116.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 34c | 113.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 30c | 103$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 100.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 38c | 63.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 17c | 63.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 60.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…6c18backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 58.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 60c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 52.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 51.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 33c | 48.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 45.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 64c | 44.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 43.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 43.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 37.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 36.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 35.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 31.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 26.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 44c | 23.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 19.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.