Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae3f72b1e22d5aff0e8be53b5f966fe7ffc998ebbad161a1548c2e33753a20ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 24c | 2,281$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.75 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,128$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.88 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 321.83$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 14c | 290.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 10c | 251.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 27c | 212.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 11c | 204.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 151.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 149$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 147.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 126.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 125.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 51c | 114.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 112.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 27c | 109.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 107.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 107.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 79c | 82.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 78.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 75.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 73.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 70.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 65.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1de5backed Yes | 43c | 59.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 58.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 50.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 79c | 49.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 52c | 45.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 44.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 39.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 79c | 37.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 35.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 34.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 29.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…5a37backed No | 59c | 25.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 78c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…0231backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 24.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 51c | 21.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 75c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 75c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 75c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 79c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 79c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.