Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4cf9b06a777b920e80bf5370a54079ace5b3d9298431d3f684df16edaa68468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,905$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 4,641$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,888$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,648$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 7c | 1,433$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,039$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e1…7879backed Yes | 1c | 983.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 58c | 911.43$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.61 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 2c | 859.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 573.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 549.57$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.54 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 23c | 525.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Yes | 21c | 483.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 396.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 25c | 393.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 387.88$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 338.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 325.26$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed Yes | 4c | 288$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 268.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 77c | 266.6$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 254$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 64c | 235.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 184.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 65c | 178.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 145.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 125.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 68c | 113.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 106$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 78c | 100.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 94.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 33c | 84.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 36c | 79.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 77c | 74.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 67.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 66.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 65.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 22c | 61.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 74c | 61.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 24c | 61.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 57.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 27c | 57.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 54.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 52.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 22c | 50.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 36.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 29c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 76c | 31.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 25.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 24.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 23.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 77c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 77c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.