Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe4e8fe8a679729fa3e6e152f5540488426318d0b0a969ee2d44962e9bdc524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 778.74$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 13c | 453.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 441.24$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 46c | 425$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 44c | 349.65$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.61 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 23c | 239.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 27c | 233.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 67c | 204.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 47c | 198.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 192.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 30c | 178.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 138.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 135.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 123.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1de5backed No | 38c | 119.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 116.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 106.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 105.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 93.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…b830backed Yes | 53c | 88.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 85.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 76c | 81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 76.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 35c | 75.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 23c | 75.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 73.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 41c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 64.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 64.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 57.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 56c | 56.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…c8d5backed Yes | 28c | 54.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…4937backed No | 65c | 50.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 48c | 50.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580a…301cbacked Yes | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 21c | 48.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 35c | 45.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 44.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 42.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 41.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 37c | 39.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…bfa6backed No | 39c | 38.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…5a37backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 59c | 36.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 35c | 35.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 59c | 33.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 33.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 33.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 31.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 46c | 30.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 36c | 29.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 69c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 65c | 28.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 27.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 58c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 26.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 25.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 79c | 24.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 22.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 21.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 21.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 49c | 20.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…0352backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 19.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 64c | 19.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 59c | 17.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 76c | 16.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa770…d282backed Yes | 74c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.