Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa162979b6e7aff8a562d6a659fb10408a6f42675753fd17dbd23d172776f3035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 316.93$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 65c | 303.02$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e45…fb2cbacked Yes | 40c | 272.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 219.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 200.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 194.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 176.3$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 176.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 171.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 71c | 153.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 148.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 142.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 138$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 137.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 73c | 135.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 124.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 106.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 68c | 105.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 105.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 31c | 93.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 87.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 85.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 60c | 82.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 49c | 78.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 76.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 74.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 72.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 64.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 57.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 56.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 65c | 52.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 50.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 37c | 49.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 31c | 48.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 42.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 69c | 42.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 32c | 41.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 41.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…7e87backed Yes | 34c | 39.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 38.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 37c | 36.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 34.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 61c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.