Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15599b530fbe6f7de459ad81a661197f1ff47009371970b76a9952b1b910d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 65c | 407.11$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 351.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 67c | 285.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 219.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 212.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 204.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 192.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.36 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 191.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 173.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 157$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 30c | 156.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 31c | 151.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 18c | 140.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e45…fb2cbacked No | 43c | 137.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 132.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 115.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 102.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 102.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 32c | 92.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 87.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 74.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 41c | 73.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 70.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 71c | 69.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked No | 63c | 69.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 66c | 68.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 66.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 16c | 64.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 17c | 64.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 58.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 21c | 52.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 51.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 36.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a18dbacked Yes | 76c | 22.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 67c | 15.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.