Token Launches · resolved market
Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49df13652202f431782f560cb4f27acd77e9266ed846abb79db1f439fbe0bd7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15b1…33aabacked Yes | 11c | 36,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ef00backed Yes | 13c | 2,546$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.19 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bc…f954backed Yes | 20c | 2,447$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1d…2623backed Yes | 20c | 2,309$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,576$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…67d6backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269b…dcfabacked No | 72c | 839$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 25c | 824.5$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed Yes | 3c | 705.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d30bbacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed No | 73c | 550.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…2b6bbacked Yes | 20c | 549.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 522.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e8…e7a5backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 77c | 499.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 439.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 336.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…e96dbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e27…2bcebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…5705backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 14c | 256.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…b420backed Yes | 16c | 211.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…384dbacked Yes | 6c | 210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 206.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 78c | 197$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 77c | 184.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 22c | 166$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…ee98backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…7215backed Yes | 22c | 135.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 15c | 130.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…0697backed Yes | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 118.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…3fd0backed Yes | 26c | 117.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…39b6backed Yes | 23c | 110.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…bd59backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 15c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e9…84eabacked Yes | 23c | 85.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…83b9backed Yes | 21c | 75.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f45…42d2backed Yes | 27c | 73.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 70.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…542dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd7…2601backed Yes | 19c | 66.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 46c | 64.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…8cdbbacked No | 79c | 63.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…4bdebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 49c | 40.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…cef8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…0613backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…48bebacked No | 52c | 33.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked No | 76c | 23.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?Yes won
- Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.