Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee8414f5b60980bdef7099993cd7b347929a8555da418abd608c50047c8adcd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $586,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $630,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $586,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 65c | 30,466$19,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,651.24 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 20c | 24,408$4,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,625.04 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…7c01backed Yes | 39c | 15,251$5,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,302.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 61c | 14,354$8,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,756.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed No | 60c | 13,300$7,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,940.04 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7c…5f1ebacked No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 40c | 10,799$4,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,520.92 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 56c | 9,604$5,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,351.65 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 9,031$5,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,345.42 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 8c | 8,960$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,218.54 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 67c | 7,746$5,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,184.78 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 33c | 4,922$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,292.84 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 33c | 4,417$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,965.55 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 16c | 4,025$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.61 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed No | 64c | 3,904$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.03 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 56c | 3,459$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 5c | 3,323$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.59 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657f…45ddbacked No | 29c | 3,000$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…872bbacked Yes | 34c | 2,932$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.36 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 44c | 2,692$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.92 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 9c | 2,636$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 23c | 2,586$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.15 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 49c | 2,548$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.75 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 37c | 2,439$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.8 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed No | 26c | 2,370$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 15c | 2,242$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.32 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,202$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.09 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 17c | 2,188$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.29 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…8538backed Yes | 55c | 2,100$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,058$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.15 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7507…3452backed Yes | 3c | 1,990$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +892%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a27…93e8backed No | 72c | 1,980$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.36 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,972$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.29 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 17c | 1,927$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.32 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 38c | 1,910$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.17 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 44c | 1,870$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.92 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 64c | 1,870$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.98 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…1f09backed Yes | 49c | 1,862$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 13c | 1,793$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.49 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 64c | 1,727$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.27 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 78c | 1,719$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.63 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 68c | 1,700$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.15 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 48c | 1,655$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.36 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked No | 58c | 1,649$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.27 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes | 52c | 1,644$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.57 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 68c | 1,643$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.36 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 9c | 1,598$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.58 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 21c | 1,516$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.59 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 20c | 1,476$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.37 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,458$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.48 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 11c | 1,450$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.53 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 1,414$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.22 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 22c | 1,386$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.66 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,374$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.5 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 19c | 1,303$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.16 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,284$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.57 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 6c | 1,283$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked No | 78c | 1,233$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.34 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked Yes | 24c | 1,163$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.73 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 6c | 1,108$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +388.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 77c | 1,108$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.93 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 1,094$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.28 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 37c | 1,079$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.94 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 18c | 1,068$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,064$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.28 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed No | 3c | 1,053$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 1,038$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…4a80backed Yes | 19c | 1,032$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.98 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 39c | 1,021$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.91 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 27c | 1,010$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.36 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 46c | 1,000$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.97 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 30c | 970.77$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.25 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa876…2397backed Yes | 7c | 969.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.2 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 965.86$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.76 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 34c | 961.92$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.92 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…0775backed Yes | 16c | 957.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.21 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 32c | 948.3$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.86 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 26c | 811.25$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.86 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 810.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.82 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 30c | 805.54$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.72 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked No | 66c | 758.96$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked No | 67c | 750.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 12c | 749.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.99 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 41c | 732.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.29 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 18c | 715.23$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 10c | 697.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.32 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 18c | 683.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.49 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…5c05backed Yes | 49c | 680.55$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…e4b6backed Yes | 13c | 656.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 39c | 645.27$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.38 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…758bbacked No | 72c | 640$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 26c | 636.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.97 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 77c | 611.23$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 37c | 604.93$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.93 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed Yes | 37c | 599.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 71c | 599.98$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.99 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…c7edbacked No | 23c | 589$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.