Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a862bbc9628f0bd1b9f0eef1b30e31c72b537695fa4fe6c0c5696f9e8117a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $280,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 15,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 13,578$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.85 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 9c | 12,689$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.68 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 10c | 8,526$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.79 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 7,173$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.54 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 6,009$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.84 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…5122backed Yes | 1c | 5,755$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 7c | 5,581$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,146$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.67 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 5,031$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 5,019$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 10c | 4,454$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.92 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 4,426$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.53 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 13c | 4,104$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 3c | 3,960$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 13c | 3,793$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.6 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 2c | 3,655$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…0251backed Yes | 8c | 3,167$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 7c | 3,044$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.22 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 5c | 3,005$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,863$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,806$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 5c | 2,748$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,680$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 14c | 2,399$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.89 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 10c | 2,397$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.65 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 7c | 2,300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 2,300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 2,162$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.02 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 15c | 1,999$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 13c | 1,963$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.62 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,950$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 12c | 1,900$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 14c | 1,885$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.54 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 8c | 1,777$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2bc6backed Yes | 5c | 1,735$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 12c | 1,551$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 14c | 1,545$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.43 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,527$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,477$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…57d2backed Yes | 14c | 1,449$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,422$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 7c | 1,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 5c | 1,307$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…cb99backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,267$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.38 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…0d30backed Yes | 5c | 1,246$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 10c | 1,229$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 5c | 1,205$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6830…3516backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…566dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,158$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 10c | 1,150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 1,096$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 4c | 1,065$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…4419backed Yes | 5c | 1,059$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes | 5c | 1,048$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 5c | 1,036$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 6c | 1,009$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 8c | 1,001$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 6c | 999.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 5c | 951.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 21c | 942.71$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.31 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 23c | 928.06$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.68 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 4c | 918.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…872bbacked Yes | 10c | 853.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 4c | 847.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 18c | 838.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 8c | 835.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 21c | 831.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 10c | 746.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 13c | 741$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 4c | 740$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 11c | 733.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…a432backed Yes | 16c | 714.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 6c | 712.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 5c | 699.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 21c | 693.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.31 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 660.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes | 12c | 636.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 9c | 632.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…448cbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 599.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e32…a916backed Yes | 11c | 567.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 4c | 549.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 10c | 549.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 8c | 533.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Yes | 11c | 525.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…d5d7backed Yes | 3c | 499.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 3c | 494.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 6c | 480.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 473.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…f192backed Yes | 9c | 468.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 461.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.