Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2286eec0c6815aadf1927af41d00b6f52251937e15cc733722fa553d0284ad8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 15,149$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 7c | 5,329$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.1 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,708$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 80c | 3,013$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.69 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 8c | 2,901$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.92 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…3a62backed Yes | 1c | 2,510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,360$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…1550backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 3c | 1,855$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,817$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,742$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…7569backed Yes | 30c | 1,423$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.39 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…6e96backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 1,180$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.28 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 3c | 1,098$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,019$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 905.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 73c | 899.97$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 894.95$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.84 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 73c | 799.98$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.99 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 764$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 3c | 722.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 17c | 699.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 25c | 599.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 35c | 578.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 2c | 571.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 25c | 566.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 19c | 548.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed No | 76c | 499.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…846ebacked Yes | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…b90abacked No | 65c | 435.66$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 24c | 410.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…6f87backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 25c | 399.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…1ea2backed Yes | 25c | 394.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fe…64f6backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked No | 75c | 363.63$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 24c | 328.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 35c | 300.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 26c | 299.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 277.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 29c | 269.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 250.64$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 63 | 81%51 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 23c | 240$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 239.27$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 238.6$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…7324backed Yes | 26c | 219.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +492.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…a285backed Yes | 12c | 209.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…d87dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3b5ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 27c | 199.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 23c | 175$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 26c | 174.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 24c | 163.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…c9afbacked Yes | 21c | 157.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 77 | 13%10 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…6ce1backed Yes | 27c | 149.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…52d6backed No | 68c | 146.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 137.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Yes | 29c | 134.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 34c | 131.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 22c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…61bdbacked Yes | 25c | 122$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 26c | 120.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d9…4764backed Yes | 35c | 112.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3083…f85cbacked Yes | 27c | 112.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 111.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…0d30backed Yes | 27c | 111.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…f3bdbacked Yes | 25c | 103.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac0…3112backed Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…f662backed Yes | 30c | 100.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645d…3205backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…9345backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 8.1%9 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…2a55backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…d9c5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 63c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed No | 73c | 94.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 27c | 93.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 69c | 87.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 82.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…6653backed Yes | 21c | 79.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.