Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef20f2d1efa2ede5b8c0e29009ef47592ea406ff5c6b9738b614ea0bb9ec62b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $381,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 26,507$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.41 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 25,361$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 9,030$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.16 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 7,680$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…42ffbacked Yes | 0c | 7,280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 6,759$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 2c | 6,113$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 3c | 5,693$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.81 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,961$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 4,794$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 1c | 4,593$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Yes | 1c | 4,322$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed Yes | 1c | 4,273$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,201$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,934$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 3c | 3,877$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 3,716$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.02 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,553$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 3c | 3,474$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,158$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 3c | 2,984$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 3c | 2,942$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,851$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bb…a432backed Yes | 0c | 2,804$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 2c | 2,786$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,714$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 2,680$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 3c | 2,642$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 2,640$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 3c | 2,604$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 2,601$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,559$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,543$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…cb99backed Yes | 1c | 2,265$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,091$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,081$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,055$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,895$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,884$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 1c | 1,664$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,542$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,382$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,289$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,277$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +314.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 3c | 1,249$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,191$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…cc4abacked Yes | 2c | 1,157$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…5c90backed Yes | 1c | 1,085$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,076$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 3c | 1,002$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 1c | 999.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 3c | 993.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 2c | 968.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…b9e2backed Yes | 1c | 934.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…a285backed Yes | 2c | 857.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…8213backed Yes | 1c | 774.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 4c | 755.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2bc6backed Yes | 3c | 735.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78aa…c7ccbacked Yes | 4c | 727.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 3c | 720.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 2c | 615.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e32…a916backed Yes | 2c | 613.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 2c | 601.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 4c | 586.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…ecacbacked Yes | 4c | 554.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 2c | 541.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…8652backed Yes | 2c | 516.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 4c | 502.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…9814backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 3c | 499.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 4c | 473.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…a418backed Yes | 3c | 460.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 5c | 446.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…9e29backed Yes | 4c | 418.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…1218backed Yes | 3c | 410$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…8d42backed Yes | 3c | 400.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 3c | 313.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 4c | 278.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…888ebacked Yes | 4c | 276.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.