Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb482124409854cfc68ac3ca8aeaedccd9ac58b8873c50571e858d7d454da12c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 0c | 16,532$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 0c | 11,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 9,695$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 6,491$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.72 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 3,999$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 2,917$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 16c | 1,531$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.27 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…7569backed Yes | 16c | 1,394$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 1,265$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,191$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.91 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 1,111$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.17 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 1,042$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.71 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 78c | 970.84$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.82 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 23c | 913.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 13c | 871.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 4c | 778.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 4c | 699.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 16c | 631.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 25c | 620.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 15c | 603.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 75c | 600$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 14c | 600$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 441.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes | 16c | 434.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…f662backed Yes | 8c | 364.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 350.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 29c | 346.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 17c | 294.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 111 | 8.1%9 W · 102 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…a5a9backed Yes | 18c | 280.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed Yes | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 19c | 262.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…3dd9backed Yes | 13c | 257.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 17c | 240.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 19c | 203.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…415cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 14c | 179.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes | 17c | 163.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…c9afbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 77 | 13%10 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 78c | 147.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 14c | 145.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 14c | 143.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 8.7%15 W · 157 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed Yes | 14c | 139.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 13c | 132.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 16c | 128.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 77c | 121.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 121.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…61bdbacked Yes | 25c | 120.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 63 | 81%51 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…3d21backed Yes | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes | 16c | 114.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 114.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 23c | 108.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…7b63backed Yes | 24c | 104.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes | 15c | 103.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 103.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…e588backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…a9fcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…37e8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…2a55backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 278 | 11.9%33 W · 245 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 13c | 97.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 86.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…6653backed Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 16c | 79.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf754…45a8backed Yes | 20c | 66.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c1…a2d1backed Yes | 24c | 63.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…4419backed Yes | 16c | 63.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes | 19c | 51.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc378…e4a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…3f84backed Yes | 24c | 48.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…75c5backed Yes | 25c | 43.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…84eebacked No | 79c | 37.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…8a91backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8a…d7e7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.