Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb1bfad2d42113972b8c62056dee328bc9ddc07eff90ac677cc7c06e3e89bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $603,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $505,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $603,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 0c | 75,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…577ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +243%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…2596backed Yes | 0c | 17,924$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 3c | 13,645$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.44 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 2c | 13,268$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.64 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…566dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,780$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes | 0c | 11,011$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 10,779$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.32 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,086$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 17.5%24 W · 113 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…dfb5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…7e85backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,555$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 6c | 6,737$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.32 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 6,475$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 16c | 5,345$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.79 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 5c | 5,043$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.44 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 14c | 4,965$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.66 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,574$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 9c | 3,323$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…6129backed Yes | 1c | 3,320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 5c | 2,967$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,965$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a3…d653backed Yes | 10c | 2,827$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…872bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,748$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 7c | 2,621$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,527$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 10c | 2,479$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 13c | 2,442$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.61 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…8538backed Yes | 12c | 2,100$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c36…f884backed Yes | 1c | 2,099$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 11c | 2,050$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.35 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 76c | 1,981$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.49 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,958$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,817$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.55 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,772$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,669$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 7c | 1,427$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 20c | 1,260$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.44 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…675abacked Yes | 3c | 1,153$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 12c | 1,125$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,124$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…1b90backed Yes | 9c | 1,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,069$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 76c | 1,057$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.15 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,025$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 1,021$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 28c | 1,017$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.33 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 10c | 953.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 21c | 941.68$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 799.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 74c | 779.94$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.39 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 26c | 756.9$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.37 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…b6cebacked Yes | 8c | 697.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 20c | 686.56$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 5c | 652.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 8c | 639.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 32c | 607.33$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 7c | 606.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 12c | 596.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 6c | 589.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 4c | 582.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 578.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 16c | 560.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 20c | 505.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 31c | 499.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 499.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 18c | 495$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 6c | 489.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 476.76$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 21c | 465.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fe…64f6backed Yes | 22c | 458.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 451.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8a…d7e7backed Yes | 20c | 444.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 7c | 440.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…fe1bbacked Yes | 24c | 439.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 33c | 422.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…5367backed Yes | 3c | 412.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3b5ebacked Yes | 5c | 391.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…9d91backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…23a2backed Yes | 3c | 373$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 9c | 370$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…3a62backed Yes | 7c | 367.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…ad1bbacked Yes | 9c | 364.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 18c | 359.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…81ebbacked Yes | 6c | 353.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…8213backed Yes | 7c | 352.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.