Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822dbab40219110990f67df3c8ed5dd5b4d482c071b8166c161aac82652a131a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $350,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $350,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 47,847$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.56 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 62c | 12,859$8,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,024.45 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac7c…5f1ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,870$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…dfb5backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 27c | 6,213$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.09 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 41c | 5,201$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.93 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 5,031$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,723.77 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 35c | 4,045$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.16 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 46c | 4,004$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.43 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked No | 52c | 3,891$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.17 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 54c | 3,666$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.21 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 33c | 3,657$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.21 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 34c | 3,402$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.98 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 53c | 3,241$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.08 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…5e20backed No | 58c | 3,046$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,783$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.22 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 33c | 2,536$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.29 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 78c | 2,454$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.69 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…ee0dbacked No | 45c | 2,420$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.3 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14df…9c3dbacked No | 45c | 2,416$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 53c | 2,409$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.14 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 25c | 2,388$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.07 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…79aebacked No | 79c | 2,387$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 51c | 2,384$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.28 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…8538backed Yes | 60c | 2,110$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 52c | 2,088$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.71 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 63c | 1,993$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 66c | 1,971$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.5 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 41c | 1,820$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.88 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…5122backed Yes | 9c | 1,802$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…1bb8backed No | 33c | 1,700$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.96 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 18c | 1,666$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.11 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 31c | 1,590$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.12 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes | 47c | 1,567$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.76 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,541$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 1,529$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 6c | 1,406$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,400$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.67 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,350$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.17 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,346$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 32c | 1,313$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.64 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 1,305$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 33c | 1,255$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.29 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6830…3516backed Yes | 70c | 1,215$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,212$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 10c | 1,209$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 63c | 1,196$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.77 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,167$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed No | 74c | 1,154$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.14 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 43c | 1,048$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.57 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…b841backed Yes | 22c | 1,033$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.91 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 10c | 1,027$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.96 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.87 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 41c | 973.56$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 939.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.19 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 12c | 889.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 2c | 860$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 26c | 847.64$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 38c | 819$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.48 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 70c | 806.07$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.87 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 13c | 803.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 52c | 796.14$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.17 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 13c | 773.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…fe1bbacked Yes | 16c | 753.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 17c | 748.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…872bbacked Yes | 54c | 747.5$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.15 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 51c | 725.59$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.98 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 7c | 710$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 37c | 708.43$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 12c | 700$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f3…7e7fbacked Yes | 6c | 699.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…5c05backed Yes | 56c | 690.59$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78aa…c7ccbacked Yes | 3c | 689.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…e3e4backed No | 64c | 674.43$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 668.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…0251backed Yes | 36c | 663.3$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 10c | 645.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 11c | 635.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 48c | 625.88$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 612.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 23c | 599.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 9c | 585.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…2222backed Yes | 44c | 580.22$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 48c | 566.32$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 48c | 553.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.57 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 15c | 543.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 19c | 537.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 532.79$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 58c | 530.66$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 65c | 530.62$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.39 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 36c | 524.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 52c | 504.99$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.76 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657f…45ddbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.