Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24667269e92ca6e290719ed40a24c743ed61b6decc2bb5b97bc338fdc6a56ff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 2,040$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.59 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 711.73$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 702$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.09 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 35c | 677.91$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.66 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 531.38$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.07 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 486.97$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 465.19$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 423.01$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 383.91$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 32c | 376.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 334$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 34c | 309.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 28c | 303.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 24c | 300.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 286.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 274.52$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 274.24$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 266.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 266.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 75c | 257.23$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 246.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 230$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 226.64$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 215.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 16c | 206.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 204.51$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 74c | 196.86$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 194.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 13c | 187.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 79c | 184.07$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 182.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 15c | 180.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 174.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…5a9fbacked Yes | 23c | 166.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 62c | 159$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 25c | 159$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 151.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 151.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 75c | 147.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 144.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…a0e7backed Yes | 25c | 137.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 136.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 134.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…a0b7backed Yes | 25c | 131.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 124$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 122.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 19c | 122.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…1293backed Yes | 20c | 113.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 110.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7eb3backed Yes | 38c | 108.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 108.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…7e4bbacked Yes | 21c | 102.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 102.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bf…04aabacked No | 79c | 102.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 102.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a4…16cbbacked Yes | 21c | 98.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 91.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 90.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 89.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 86.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 85.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 26c | 83.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…9cfbbacked Yes | 18c | 79.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…72ffbacked Yes | 21c | 78.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 31c | 76.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…2e38backed Yes | 22c | 72.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 69.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 68.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 26c | 66.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 26c | 66.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 27c | 64.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 31c | 60.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 27c | 56.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 29c | 55.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 54.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…3c24backed Yes | 24c | 52.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +129%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 51.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 21c | 50.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked Yes | 42c | 50.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 24c | 45.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 59c | 45.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 27c | 43.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 43.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.