TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes25c2,040$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.591,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c711.73$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.594,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c702$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.095,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes35c677.91$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c531.38$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.0760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No78c486.97$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.834,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c465.19$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.895,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c423.01$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.794,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c383.91$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes32c376.17$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.825349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c334$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.063,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes34c309.88$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10619737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes28c303.11$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.246533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes24c300.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.726540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No65c286.19$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.662,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c274.52$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.414,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c274.24$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.773,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes26c266.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.988,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes8c266.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.381,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked No75c257.23$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.616543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c246.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes26c230$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No72c226.64$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.942,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes25c215.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes16c206.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3212927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No77c204.51$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8348149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b4a…089fbacked No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.13650%18 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No74c196.86$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2727079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c194.24$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.993,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes13c187.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No79c184.07$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.797862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes23c182.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.552,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7137…0c12backed Yes15c180.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.247417.6%13 W · 61 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c174.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.076,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8499…5a9fbacked Yes23c166.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.871649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No62c159$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6524546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes25c159$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes24c151.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.023,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No68c151.68$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.56,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No75c147.55$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4421264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c144.12$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.071,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5778…a0e7backed Yes25c137.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes22c136.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c134.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.462,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4390…a0b7backed Yes25c131.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes35c125$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No70c124$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.312,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c122.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.744,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes19c122.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2657…1293backed Yes20c113.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c110.24$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.314,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x046c…7eb3backed Yes38c108.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes37c108.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4087437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb61…7e4bbacked Yes21c102.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c102.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb3bf…04aabacked No79c102.17$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.461060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c102.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.223,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a4…16cbbacked Yes21c98.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c91.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.259,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No75c90.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.954,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes16c89.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No67c86.6$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6855954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes39c85.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.321,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes26c83.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.631323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4710345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x752a…9cfbbacked Yes18c79.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x096d…72ffbacked Yes21c78.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd62a…de09backed Yes31c76.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.793647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1581…2e38backed Yes22c72.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c69.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4367633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes31c68.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.013,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes26c66.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4926256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x282c…ddeabacked Yes26c66.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.47350.7%37 W · 36 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes35c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7524442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes27c64.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.37159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes31c60.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6296…981cbacked Yes26c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No77c57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes27c56.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3414932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes29c55.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0211947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes40c54.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7380130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6a…3c24backed Yes24c52.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+129%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes38c51.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.591,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes21c50.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5456048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a1…a26bbacked Yes42c50.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.061464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.516936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.522645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes30c47.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes24c45.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7123129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd6…2a5fbacked No59c45.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.471861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bdc…e076backed Yes27c43.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126141%25 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No64c43.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2524141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.