TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes32c1,603$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.131,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c956.08$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.825,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes18c895.22$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.5139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No49c746.72$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.934,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c664.49$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.454,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes38c545.94$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.3216724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c542.49$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c534.86$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c521.47$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.074,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No56c514.91$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9260054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c497$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.962,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No39c496$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.145,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes70c455.52$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2315570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No41c411.35$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.43,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No67c394.99$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.052,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c385.55$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c370.02$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf23…3f54backed Yes28c357.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.042623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No71c352.56$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.523,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes34c340.4$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed No3c332.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.631,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes41c319.87$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.876533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes63c307$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.622740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes61c300.03$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c279.77$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.693,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes35c275.81$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.465349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No23c274.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.382,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked No27c258.75$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.898727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c254.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6918142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes44c228.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.992556%14 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c226.64$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.142,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes76c212$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7340025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes48c210$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No59c209.77$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.231,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c203$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.593,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No36c190.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.561,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes75c184.85$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c180.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.582,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No79c174.04$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3792678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd147…4501backed Yes45c165.52$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.77812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-72.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No78c160$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.81,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes62c157.14$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0427246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes33c152.04$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5219737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No60c151.43$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.348149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes70c150.59$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.246,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No59c149.51$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7483459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No61c148.42$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0442754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No67c146$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.481,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes22c145$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.112927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes56c143.97$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.976854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c140.24$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.194,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes74c134.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes65c127.12$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes19c125$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.822,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes24c120.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2314332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes37c119.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5934533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes44c113.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.061,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes42c111.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.91,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes71c110.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8716543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No57c108.97$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No65c102.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8924546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6360550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes35c93.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.21,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes56c88.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.616437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No41c86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9819861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes34c85.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes15c85.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.563,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes39c83.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.797729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c82.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes39c79.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No60c78.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c77.63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.313,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9156backed Yes51c73.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.884434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No23c72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7137465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked No22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.440237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c69.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.991,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No59c69.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4635264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No46c69.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.118046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c68.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.869,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x282c…ddeabacked Yes43c64.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.467350.7%37 W · 36 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes27c64.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.972,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes44c64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes79c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2361365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No30c60.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4417457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.622744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No66c59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9364167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c57.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No29c57.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes78c56.3$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.224367.4%29 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes78c55.08$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.944628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde17…e06fbacked No73c52.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.683641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No78c52.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.291,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed No31c52.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.494040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes27c52.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes63c50.45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9178663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes23c50.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5864333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.522645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.