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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes12c2,673$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.781,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes25c1,497$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes13c1,200$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3641927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes26c799.66$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1716543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes22c667.5$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.4913127.5%36 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c508.86$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.445,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes16c488.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010735.5%38 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No74c471.76$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0360054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c376.72$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.052,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No77c364.19$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.761,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes27c356.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.948028.8%23 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes30c315.48$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9116724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c299.91$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6312,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes10c299.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9114731.3%46 W · 101 L+14.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No75c284.04$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0198952.3%517 W · 472 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c270.92$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.134,31353.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L+158.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes25c263.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1229832.2%96 W · 202 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No80c251.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.38068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c248$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.355,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes15c245.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5225429.1%74 W · 180 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c232.17$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.253,05040.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L-121.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c231.66$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.032,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes6c202.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1534732.9%114 W · 233 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014432.6%47 W · 97 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes17c181.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1166834.3%229 W · 439 L+37.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95e4…4e69backed No74c181.16$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.741080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes25c174.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7596733.3%322 W · 645 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c167$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.523,83561.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes15c158.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21,42131.1%442 W · 979 L-93.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes11c153.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3910,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes20c152.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.751,18454.9%650 W · 534 L+49.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba88…a08ebacked No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.33764.9%24 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00eb…313cbacked Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.474219%8 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick11cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c93…436abacked Yes31c146.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453324.2%8 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes15c141.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No68c137.01$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.841,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e3…07bcbacked No74c134.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.959976.8%76 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No72c129.13$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.754,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No69c124.41$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes28c119.56$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.411323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No80c106.06$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2148523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes16c102.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.126439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62a…de09backed Yes30c98.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No80c96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.382,04361.7%1,261 W · 782 L+2.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No74c95.43$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8194044.8%421 W · 519 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes35c76.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3128845.1%130 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No76c70.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6914043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes21c70.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.537355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8db6…8679backed No75c66.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.652669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+105.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41,27647.6%607 W · 669 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed No75c55.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.995560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No69c55.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2935264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c52.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.863,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.522645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.527247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes28c48.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.747159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x431a…88a2backed No70c48.06$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.427178.9%56 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6476…393ebacked No70c44.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.491181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No72c44.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4660550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No68c40.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8230849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes27c38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No74c37.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9624164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No67c37.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.284057.5%23 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No69c36.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3521772.4%157 W · 60 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes32c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.37540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb7…91c4backed No79c33.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.114571.1%32 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4727461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No79c30.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3637669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed No70c30.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9610345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.573246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No75c28.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.117457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No74c26.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c24.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.262,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No75c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7516166.5%107 W · 54 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No78c20.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.698651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No72c20.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.662555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.749675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6d…4abebacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.27068.6%48 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No71c19.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7944567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No71c19.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7928866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe709…a381backed No75c17.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.378258.5%48 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff5…14babacked No69c17.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3915375.2%115 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No75c15.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.968073.8%59 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb78d…c431backed No70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick63cpaid-76.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No70c14.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2848149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No74c13.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5467944.6%303 W · 376 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No75c13.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.