Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6874ab6fd608e7416a9435a81b449982496a7fa333088cf46f6b6c29b3659c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 2,673$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.78 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,497$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.17 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 1,200$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 26c | 799.66$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.17 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 22c | 667.5$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 508.86$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 16c | 488.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 471.76$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 376.72$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 77c | 364.19$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 27c | 356.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 30c | 315.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 299.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 10c | 299.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | +14.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 284.04$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 270.92$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 25c | 263.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 298 | 32.2%96 W · 202 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 80c | 251.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 248$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 15c | 245.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 232.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 231.66$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 6c | 202.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 347 | 32.9%114 W · 233 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 181.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | +37.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…4e69backed No | 74c | 181.16$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 174.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 967 | 33.3%322 W · 645 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 167$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 158.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 153.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 20c | 152.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 31c | 146.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 141.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 137.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 74c | 134.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 129.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 124.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 28c | 119.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 80c | 106.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 16c | 102.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 30c | 98.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 74c | 95.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 35c | 76.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 76c | 70.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 70.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed No | 75c | 66.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,276 | 47.6%607 W · 669 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 75c | 55.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 69c | 55.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 52.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 28c | 48.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 70c | 48.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…393ebacked No | 70c | 44.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 44.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 40.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 74c | 37.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 67c | 37.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 69c | 36.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 217 | 72.4%157 W · 60 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 79c | 33.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 30.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 70c | 30.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 75c | 28.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 26.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 24.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 161 | 66.5%107 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 71c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 75c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 75c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…c431backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 63cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 70c | 14.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.