Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3eb9712c1583d858defbb71233da25e26081978a24c5141dd456b5adc6b0031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 1,656$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 1,236$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 689.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 9c | 564.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 550.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…e636backed Yes | 4c | 283.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 19c | 257.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 9c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 242$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 240.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 7c | 229.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 225.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 13c | 223.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 17c | 199.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…72ffbacked Yes | 7c | 189.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 177.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…a9debacked Yes | 9c | 128.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 125.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 12c | 113.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 18c | 110.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ff2fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 80.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 28c | 71.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 26c | 63.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 62.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…c64fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cc…58b7backed Yes | 19c | 59.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 53.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 25c | 49.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 49.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 36.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 30.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 71c | 24.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed No | 71c | 22.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 72c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.