Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c7e0781a3a3884f2c886ef25d28c3ea4e50039080158bf795a4b0226423728

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,209,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $634,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,209,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 458 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	47,145$1,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	16c	33,039$5,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,153.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	11c	31,083$3,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,410.36	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x541a…2a0ebacked Yes	2c	30,301$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	27,340$1,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,926.17	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	6c	18,937$1,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,131.47	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	13c	16,000$2,036 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,035.62	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	14,630$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.02	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd520…723dbacked Yes	0c	14,581$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	2c	11,930$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.93	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	0c	11,625$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	8c	10,668$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.58	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	10,600$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.7	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5a…5628backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.24per pick	5cpaid	+255%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	9,350$1,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.43	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	15c	9,200$1,406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,406.05	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	1c	9,070$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.34	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	8,535$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.62	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	4c	8,524$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.2	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	3c	7,989$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.38	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	7,810$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.22	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	7,652$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	14c	7,558$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074.15	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	3c	7,146$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.56	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7266…34bfbacked Yes	1c	7,088$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.18	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	7,082$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.61	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	6,290$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.89	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	21c	5,720$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	6c	5,700$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.19	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	8c	5,519$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.88	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	5,479$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.18	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	5,348$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.65	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	5,296$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	5,141$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.88	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x744f…d927backed Yes	1c	5,130$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	5,086$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.36	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	5,014$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.99	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	4c	5,000$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	15c	4,654$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.44	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,595$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.34	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	4,500$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.8	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	4,440$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.31	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	12c	4,439$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.04	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	4,426$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.72	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	7c	4,288$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.85	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	4,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	2c	4,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	1c	3,899$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.97	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	3,891$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.91	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	18c	3,805$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	10c	3,781$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.37	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	5c	3,779$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.85	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	11c	3,776$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.39	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Yes	11c	3,747$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	2c	3,721$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.11	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	3,677$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.43	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	3,673$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.37	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	3,544$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	13c	3,422$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.1	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes	9c	3,300$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.99	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	3,192$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	3,081$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.75	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	4c	2,927$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x962c…bcd6backed Yes	14c	2,894$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.02	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	2,804$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.6	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	1c	2,746$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8930…393bbacked Yes	8c	2,626$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.43	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	11c	2,619$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.75	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	15c	2,551$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.49	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	2,500$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	12c	2,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	16c	2,462$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.89	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	1c	2,429$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	12c	2,429$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.17	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	11c	2,425$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	2,424$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.89	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x055a…7bbcbacked Yes	9c	2,423$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.88	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9189…572fbacked Yes	2c	2,405$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	11c	2,346$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.41	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	15c	2,322$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.42	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	8c	2,313$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.39	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes	3c	2,148$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.3	99	25.3%25 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	11c	2,000$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.37	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes	8c	2,000$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.29	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	9c	2,000$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28d5…d273backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24c…d9d0backed Yes	3c	1,944$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe209…e60dbacked Yes	19c	1,920$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.97	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	1,884$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.52	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	1,854$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.72	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Yes	1c	1,822$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	1,706$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.17	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	16c	1,700$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.37	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	8c	1,691$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.65	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	13c	1,639$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.68	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes	4c	1,625$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.14	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	4c	1,610$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.87	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	6c	1,600$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	10c	1,600$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event