Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9520dc1f9b1b3ad6a3b8e65df0458148de02582df35434c9bfb480b29b83422

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,140,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $489,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,140,372 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	136,068$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	38,405$2,683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,683.1	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	28,600$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.04	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	0c	26,326$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.16	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	20,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	12c	18,677$2,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,319.77	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	16,667$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	6c	13,534$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$821.47	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes	3c	11,050$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.01	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x744f…d927backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,776$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	10,135$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	10,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	8c	9,697$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	3c	8,821$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.13	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	8,803$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	8,535$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.92	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	11c	8,443$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922.3	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712e…8f57backed Yes	6c	8,095$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	13c	7,586$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.71	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	6,734$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.27	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	6,595$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.03	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	1c	6,344$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.81	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	0c	6,290$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfe…b127backed Yes	1c	6,156$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	99	25.3%25 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	16c	6,085$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	5,999$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	1c	5,995$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	5c	5,841$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.62	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	5,387$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.39	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	5,131$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.36	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac79…dbf0backed Yes	1c	5,075$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,987$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.11	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	4,714$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.48	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45be…ab8abacked Yes	1c	4,538$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	199	30.2%60 W · 139 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	4,522$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.19	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	4,330$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.22	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9713…8219backed Yes	8c	4,000$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	4c	3,994$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.57	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	3,707$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.04	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	3,520$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.44	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	3,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.96	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	3,403$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.82	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,400$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.49	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	12c	3,391$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.66	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	5c	3,365$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.91	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,328$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.72	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	3,318$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.95	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	3,288$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.58	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	3,271$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.13	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	11c	3,100$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.8	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	13c	3,006$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.48	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	8c	2,987$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.92	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes	1c	2,902$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,856$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,730$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.15	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	8c	2,639$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,542$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.86	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	0c	2,516$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	6c	2,493$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.2	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	11c	2,399$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.39	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	7c	2,316$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.53	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	9c	2,267$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.11	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	9c	2,267$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.12	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	6c	2,233$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.35	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	11c	2,192$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.3	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	4c	2,182$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.47	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	7c	2,108$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.85	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	10c	2,059$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.32	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	2,003$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.26	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,992$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.32	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	15c	1,985$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.61	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	1,967$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.98	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	7c	1,885$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	12c	1,885$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	3c	1,855$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.35	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	1,842$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.48	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes	9c	1,789$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.27	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	1,726$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.49	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,695$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	16c	1,686$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.55	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	5c	1,684$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes	1c	1,625$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.53	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67fc…8048backed Yes	8c	1,622$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.79	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+74.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	5c	1,613$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.17	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	1,600$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes	2c	1,571$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.33	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24c…d9d0backed Yes	2c	1,522$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28d5…d273backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes	6c	1,429$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.72	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	12c	1,428$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.7	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	9c	1,339$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	9c	1,338$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.33	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	1,328$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	8c	1,274$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	14c	1,257$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.78	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	9c	1,254$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.28	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa13…930bbacked Yes	4c	1,250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe335…91adbacked Yes	15c	1,228$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event