Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbbbdfbbbd975781f547520ffc6cbf19baf64f346779c08394c94bf15811b10

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $766,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $237,164

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $766,795 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	145,209$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.01	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	44,561$1,874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,874.13	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	5c	26,871$1,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.24	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	20,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	16,200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	7c	14,913$1,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,046.05	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	12,290$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	10,293$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.54	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	3c	8,315$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.46	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,178$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	4c	7,959$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.33	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	7,743$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.41	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	7,621$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	7,225$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.95	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	7,000$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.5	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	6,770$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.55	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	3c	6,682$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.12	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	6,412$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.09	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	10c	6,156$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.68	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	5,573$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.16	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes	1c	4,757$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	6c	4,414$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.7	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	4,166$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	4,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	3,992$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.92	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	3c	3,847$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.17	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	3c	3,719$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.4	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…2c78backed Yes	4c	3,637$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.57	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,415$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.13	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	3,291$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	4c	3,266$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.73	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	2c	3,100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	3,058$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.34	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	3,041$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.78	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	3,028$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	3,000$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa100…bbacbacked Yes	2c	2,856$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.62	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	5cpaid	+370.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,730$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.9	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	0c	2,648$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	6c	2,602$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.68	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	4c	2,509$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.12	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	3c	2,448$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.2	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,376$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	2c	2,333$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.86	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	7c	2,331$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.3	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	6c	2,298$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.37	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	4c	2,227$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.96	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	2,050$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.44	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	2c	1,998$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.11	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,965$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.58	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94c3…94abbacked Yes	4c	1,957$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.16	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eca…4513backed Yes	2c	1,873$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	5c	1,819$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0f…6867backed Yes	6c	1,788$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-50%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	1,739$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.62	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…e737backed Yes	6c	1,715$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.85	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	6c	1,632$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.64	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,496$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.89	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Yes	2c	1,493$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	1,440$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.33	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	4c	1,408$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.15	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	1,362$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,330$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.3	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3538…c269backed Yes	8c	1,318$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	1,250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	1,240$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.96	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee35…6c20backed Yes	1c	1,224$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	78	21.8%17 W · 61 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	4c	1,185$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.61	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bf…9c11backed Yes	3c	1,140$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.43	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,033$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	7c	1,003$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	4c	999.98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.73	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2265…4130backed Yes	4c	947.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	946.16$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.2	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	6c	920.93$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.52	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d4…fb31backed Yes	3c	912.01$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.33	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+230.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	6c	904.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x023f…d4d0backed Yes	9c	836.35$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	3c	801.49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.19	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26c5…ee21backed Yes	2c	800$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	73	11%8 W · 65 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.73	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes	5c	784.39$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	6c	776.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	5c	775.52$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	2c	774.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	5c	750$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x660e…eda0backed Yes	3c	745.94$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.89	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f3…ebbbbacked Yes	3c	728.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	2c	728.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	6c	700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.51	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb742…8cb0backed Yes	5c	691.55$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes	2c	672.93$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5660…27e6backed Yes	5c	647.9$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a4c…5d74backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae80…ca34backed Yes	3c	625$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event