Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16fd4429267f7e019d3d9b9b6676b996da6b8d4a04c243219c1e69aa49c475b2

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $755,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $529,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $755,871 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	232,049$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.25	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f46…b5a2backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04bf…1e02backed Yes	1c	16,715$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.17	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	0c	15,088$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.18	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,733$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ba…0279backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60b8…38cebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	9,239$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.7	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,204$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	6,173$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	4,899$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.15	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	4,790$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.95	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f29…c8d3backed Yes	3c	4,369$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	3c	4,368$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.43	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	4,303$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.31	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,291$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.79	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	3,537$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.14	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	3,396$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.95	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	6c	3,140$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.64	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	2c	3,046$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	4c	2,990$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	2,607$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.82	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	2,500$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	2,242$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.44	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	2,083$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.05	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,077$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	3c	2,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	3c	1,743$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,722$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.16	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	5c	1,719$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.42	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab9…ff25backed Yes	3c	1,711$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,700$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	1,650$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.78	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	1c	1,595$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.64	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,426$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.24	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	1,321$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.34	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b2…51fabacked Yes	2c	1,143$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe7…4362backed Yes	6c	1,141$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.9	90	15.6%14 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	1c	1,060$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	999.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.41	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	2c	944.23$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	4c	943.87$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.94	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	913.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.83	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6de…12f7backed Yes	1c	835$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	818.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	9c	803.2$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.23	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	3c	782.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	3c	778$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e4…f945backed Yes	3c	700$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes	3c	692.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x560b…5bf9backed Yes	2c	666$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	7c	656.03$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.85	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	7c	637.79$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.53	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	7c	601.87$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.92	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd093…4fc7backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	431.93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	7c	402.65$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	4c	315.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked Yes	4c	314.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa13…930bbacked Yes	4c	299.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8be…4002backed Yes	4c	289.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	7c	280.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	4c	240$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.73	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event