Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66325201a660ddcc74f346ec877136e5522b8728433ca08bcd8578cf74180eac

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $588,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $410,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $588,806 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	154,529$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.02	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	0c	37,292$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.29	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7e…2f87backed Yes	0c	11,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a17…01c3backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b3…18c9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,690$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	6,983$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.43	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,977$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.68	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	5,760$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.17	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	4,644$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.7	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	4,000$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.79	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	2c	3,884$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,636$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.27	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	3,626$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.22	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	3,371$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.95	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	3c	3,293$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.71	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes	1c	3,109$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	3,073$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	5c	2,754$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.88	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	2,678$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.46	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,477$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.92	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,160$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.42	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	2c	2,088$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	2,045$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	2,000$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	4c	1,978$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.7	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…aa3dbacked Yes	3c	1,939$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,842$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	1,817$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.31	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	3c	1,654$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,596$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	1,575$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes	1c	1,514$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	3c	1,485$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.22	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	1,482$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.47	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	4c	1,185$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.44	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	2c	1,175$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,137$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.74	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,042$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.04	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	1c	996.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	929.13$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	8c	905.68$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.15	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	848.75$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.53	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f22…df03backed Yes	1c	738.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	2c	720.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	6c	720.21$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	4c	700$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.93	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	637.51$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.97	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbebb…28b8backed Yes	7c	590.87$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.41	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	523.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3a…1550backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…872bbacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd093…4fc7backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	5c	499.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	4c	499.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	2c	427.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	6c	424.64$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	5c	417.06$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.75	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8be…4002backed Yes	4c	412.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	3c	391.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	6c	357.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6830…3516backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	6c	299.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked Yes	5c	235.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event