Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2f729e0695089192568fb1c6cea4ecba9515d98f508c1e98563c215f8545de

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,395,071
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $829,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,395,071 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	53,536$1,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,108.21	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe218…f33bbacked Yes	0c	36,252$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.39	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	7c	31,437$2,048 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,048.48	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3947…a5a9backed Yes	0c	31,006$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00b6…e4e1backed Yes	0c	30,200$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes	0c	25,653$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	3c	18,403$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.58	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	15,309$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.94	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Yes	0c	12,781$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	12,383$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.25	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	11,776$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.34	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	4c	11,223$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f83…5dbcbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8760…5066backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+177.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07ac…da19backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d4…260ebacked Yes	0c	9,651$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.05	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	9,512$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.9	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd86d…b968backed Yes	5c	8,583$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.62	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…2144backed Yes	0c	7,793$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	7,565$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.3	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	7,547$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.54	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	7,532$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.31	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab0…2132backed Yes	5c	7,532$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	7,509$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.58	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	7,498$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.76	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	7,423$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.87	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	7c	7,141$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	7,083$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.31	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	5c	6,696$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	6,546$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.81	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	6,287$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.22	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006b…daa6backed Yes	4c	6,038$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.05	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	3c	6,000$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	5,872$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.01	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	5,750$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.77	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	5,745$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.52	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	5,651$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.88	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	5,573$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.83	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40a…e7ecbacked Yes	0c	5,533$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Yes	0c	5,351$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,218$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.64	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	5,205$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.34	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	5,135$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.27	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2e…88f5backed Yes	1c	4,536$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	108	22.2%24 W · 84 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xac79…dbf0backed Yes	4c	4,428$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	7c	4,300$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.98	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	5c	4,183$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.32	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	4,111$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.23	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	1c	4,012$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.97	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	3,952$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.83	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	3,887$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.07	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…2911backed Yes	0c	3,800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes	8c	3,791$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.31	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	3,787$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	3c	3,711$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	3,596$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes	10c	3,569$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.92	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	3,396$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.08	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eca…4513backed Yes	4c	3,334$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6de…12f7backed Yes	4c	3,319$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.65	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	3c	3,205$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.3	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes	1c	3,165$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	183	21.9%40 W · 143 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	2c	3,141$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.84	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Yes	3c	3,100$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e3…f87cbacked Yes	1c	2,914$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.03	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes	4c	2,883$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.77	129	20.9%27 W · 102 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342a…3501backed Yes	4c	2,781$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc1…dc77backed Yes	7c	2,726$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.26	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-43%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	4c	2,679$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.77	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb8…a958backed Yes	2c	2,675$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.89	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	2,616$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.16	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ec…154fbacked Yes	5c	2,600$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	4c	2,500$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	2,500$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.07	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	5c	2,500$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aad…3a85backed Yes	7c	2,344$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.06	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…d295backed Yes	9c	2,339$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.33	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	2,272$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.7	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	2,197$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,180$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.42	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8125…8cb5backed Yes	2c	2,101$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3fa…5621backed Yes	3c	2,079$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2efd…44c9backed Yes	3c	2,071$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	3c	2,050$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…7412backed Yes	2c	2,024$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	2,020$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.65	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	8c	2,001$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.22	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	8c	2,000$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.36	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	2,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.99	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	3c	1,943$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.3	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	10c	1,935$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	1c	1,933$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa970…d60dbacked Yes	6c	1,800$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+51%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x766f…37dfbacked Yes	6c	1,770$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+148.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7266…34bfbacked Yes	3c	1,759$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.76	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event