Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10cf4927827e9f1377d41fa4565b4d34deeb78d783ab2c8f8c8ec442edc47941

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,853,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,533,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,853,352 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 944 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4c94…9768backed No	0c	160,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	74c	36,954$27,282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,671.95	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	25,387$5,429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,958.42	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	28c	19,786$5,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,186.04	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	49c	19,533$9,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,486.9	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	18c	19,504$3,602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,901.51	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	24c	17,554$4,198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,356.53	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	32c	17,056$5,386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,670.06	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x008f…5f33backed No	0c	16,702$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2351…41c1backed No	0c	15,492$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	15,000$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,099.98	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	14c	14,156$1,923 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,233.62	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	54c	13,966$7,593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,373.29	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8b…deffbacked No	0c	13,357$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	24c	12,422$3,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,393.35	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x830e…341dbacked No	0c	11,675$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	18c	10,950$1,967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,983.13	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	57c	10,323$5,898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,897.61	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	50c	10,258$5,165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,092.63	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	26c	9,530$2,465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,065.07	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	11c	9,038$989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,049.56	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	18c	8,976$1,624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,352.15	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc07f…33f8backed No	0c	8,479$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	7,922$1,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,876.57	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7abe…cabbbacked Yes	13c	7,758$992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,765.87	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	29c	7,469$2,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,325.52	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes	34c	7,311$2,477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,834.18	114	21.9%25 W · 89 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed No	26c	7,271$1,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,860.69	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+6.5wins	+0.18per pick	47cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	23c	7,170$1,622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,547.75	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	16c	6,935$1,096 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,839.48	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	15c	6,437$951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,486.23	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	13c	5,944$746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,198.57	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	18c	5,870$1,059 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,810.92	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	22c	5,471$1,197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,273.9	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…d295backed Yes	22c	5,258$1,148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,110.44	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	5,000$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,764.98	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	8c	4,976$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,576.18	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	6c	4,836$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,536.44	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	4,711$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,130.81	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,642$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,343.79	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	35c	4,603$1,627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,975.55	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	76c	4,569$3,467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,466.82	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72e6…bc6dbacked Yes	40c	4,459$1,774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,685.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	20cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	7c	4,384$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,084.66	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	44c	4,266$1,875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,391.02	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	6c	4,232$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,972.2	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	11c	4,102$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,636.82	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	4,009$589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,420	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,680	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c7…6849backed Yes	8c	3,956$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,625.98	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.92per pick	8cpaid	+1,098.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No	23c	3,829$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.95	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	36c	3,732$1,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,388.39	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	50c	3,699$1,852 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,847.5	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	66c	3,650$2,408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,241.23	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	8c	3,615$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,309.06	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	33c	3,590$1,173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,416.62	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	42c	3,500$1,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,017.6	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	23c	3,449$807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,641.83	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	15c	3,400$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,876.4	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	37c	3,348$1,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,119.62	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0f…8f06backed Yes	64c	3,337$2,127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,209.52	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	25c	3,332$819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,513.04	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	3,302$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,012.58	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	3,201$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,001.54	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	56c	3,187$1,770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,417.73	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	31c	3,181$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,181.09	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	10c	3,097$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,779.1	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	10c	3,068$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,752.74	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	10c	3,019$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,707.08	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	16c	2,985$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,506.26	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,974$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,794.36	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	2,911$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,564.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	38c	2,883$1,091 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,791.95	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb016…ddaebacked Yes	4c	2,880$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,770.95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+428.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe931…ea02backed Yes	37c	2,692$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,691.99	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.47per pick	28cpaid	+132.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	38c	2,670$1,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,668	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	65c	2,630$1,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$917.54	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked Yes	68c	2,619$1,780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$839.22	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	2,616$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,449.66	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes	8c	2,572$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,377.42	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+314.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No	73c	2,566$1,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,874.72	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	65cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7402…6a0cbacked No	72c	2,559$1,842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,842.17	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	74c	2,559$1,906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,905.8	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	25c	2,539$627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,911.84	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59b8…26b2backed No	75c	2,527$1,891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,891.11	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	27c	2,500$677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,823.43	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	71c	2,405$1,711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,710.57	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	5c	2,400$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,286.34	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	61c	2,294$1,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.04	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	12c	2,269$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,988.18	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes	13c	2,267$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,978.15	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed No	67c	2,265$1,523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,522.65	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	65c	2,236$1,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,454.39	195	50.3%98 W · 97 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	77c	2,230$1,717 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$512.76	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	26c	2,207$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,637.73	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	12c	2,199$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,943.73	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	2,182$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,042.64	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	8c	2,112$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,938.09	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	17c	2,088$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,737.85	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	2,051$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,920.76	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event