Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6932fff5e409ca1b3be7d94df58aac18c194c8d570542320c0f374e2f09952

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $386,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $207,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,542 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	63,690$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.69	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,554$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	11,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf59a…feeabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7e…eaafbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	8,131$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	2c	7,298$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.99	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	4,469$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.71	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	11c	4,056$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.76	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,053$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.55	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	4,040$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	1c	3,333$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.55	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	3,033$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.14	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	2,931$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.42	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,920$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.48	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,801$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.67	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	6c	2,606$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.33	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	2,347$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.82	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,265$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.74	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,244$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.08	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	2,103$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.65	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	1,802$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.09	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,787$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.11	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,723$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc7…e1febacked Yes	1c	1,694$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,580$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.73	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	4c	1,482$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.97	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,410$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.85	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	1c	1,344$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	6c	1,300$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.5	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	1c	1,270$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,233$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,118$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.91	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	1,100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes	3c	1,077$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.13	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,074$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,015$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.7	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3516…ea50backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	933.54$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.92	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes	1c	912.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	7c	899.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	739.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	5c	714.24$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.57	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	3c	700$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	3c	667.1$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	2c	652.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	621.45$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	617.5$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	8c	600.33$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.25	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc89…f708backed Yes	2c	577.88$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	6c	533.5$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	5c	517.38$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	4c	512.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	502.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	5c	500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x020d…1a87backed Yes	3c	499.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad3b…1385backed Yes	8c	494.15$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.16	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	10cpaid	+226.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	6c	480.19$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.81	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe158…8538backed Yes	4c	467.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes	6c	434.83$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	6c	432.23$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3820…c1b5backed Yes	6c	410.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee4…93a6backed Yes	5c	400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	399.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	5c	378.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c98…0749backed Yes	5c	333$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	7c	315.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.12	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dc…e407backed Yes	6c	309.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	8c	305.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	4c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	6c	299.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	7c	231$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7e…ffa1backed Yes	5c	220.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	7c	213.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes	6c	210.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d5…bac0backed Yes	5c	206.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	6c	204.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cee…be95backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed Yes	7c	197.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a01…f1c4backed Yes	7c	192.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…4c3dbacked Yes	5c	190.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…2d2abacked Yes	6c	180.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	9c	155.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcac0…893dbacked Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes	8c	132.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event