Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57bac058325f2354f86c437addf47e18b663cfaf86efdd919fff2241cdbb27f5

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,831,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,858,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,831,107 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 485 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe312…e0b2backed Yes	0c	466,957$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.37	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…38b2backed Yes	0c	112,916$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.99	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92da…5b8dbacked Yes	0c	99,818$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dc…ddd9backed Yes	0c	69,337$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	2c	65,817$1,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,569.65	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe5…7f8cbacked Yes	0c	54,337$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.41	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd9…224cbacked Yes	0c	52,970$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.97	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72f…69f3backed Yes	0c	50,017$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab80…7923backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	40cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes	0c	45,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes	0c	37,924$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.86	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	1c	31,496$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.2	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	30,614$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.7	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	4c	27,369$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.91	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa876…2397backed Yes	0c	24,157$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.41	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47ff…3cc4backed Yes	0c	23,557$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9bf…4a80backed Yes	0c	21,699$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5013…8643backed Yes	0c	21,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	5c	20,347$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$929.66	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae80…ca34backed Yes	0c	20,214$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb016…ddaebacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+428.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes	0c	15,485$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	24	0%0 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	13,759$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,465$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	13,184$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.52	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	4c	11,887$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.31	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	11,851$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.22	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	11,294$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.03	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…7df3backed Yes	0c	10,367$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x197c…b89abacked Yes	0c	10,321$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90db…b7aebacked Yes	0c	10,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	2c	10,000$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	9,745$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	9,458$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.78	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	9,224$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.96	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	8,279$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	1c	8,070$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.17	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	1c	6,893$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.65	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7492…8652backed Yes	3c	6,189$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1e…c419backed Yes	8c	6,152$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.31	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	6,006$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.38	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	2c	5,821$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.74	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	5,764$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.54	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	5,709$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.79	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	5,581$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.64	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	5,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	4c	5,461$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.99	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec2…8823backed Yes	0c	5,447$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	5,407$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.38	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	4c	5,390$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.66	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	5,296$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.1	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	5,296$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440a…9599backed Yes	1c	5,279$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa90…b224backed Yes	0c	5,127$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	5,086$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.77	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe413…32d3backed Yes	3c	5,055$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	5,020$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.55	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	5,003$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.15	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	5,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	9c	5,000$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.47	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	4,997$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.47	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b039backed Yes	2c	4,872$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	4,696$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.66	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	4,651$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.27	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	3c	4,609$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.77	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	4,336$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.58	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes	5c	4,306$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742d…b40fbacked Yes	4c	4,282$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	3c	4,197$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.64	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…019cbacked Yes	3c	4,078$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	4,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	2c	4,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	3c	3,991$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.28	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	3,974$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.31	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	7c	3,795$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.6	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	12c	3,775$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.3	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	3,738$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.78	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb7…49cebacked Yes	6c	3,735$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.52	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	3,693$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.8	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	10c	3,677$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.04	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd964…5c7dbacked Yes	13c	3,656$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	7c	3,624$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.91	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1143…1a85backed Yes	1c	3,621$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	3,544$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.78	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b76…a3b1backed Yes	5c	3,369$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.73	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	3,300$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.01	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	3,266$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.55	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56a…a202backed Yes	0c	3,247$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf726…a78abacked Yes	0c	3,216$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	3,214$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.53	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes	2c	3,201$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	8c	3,149$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.49	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…0232backed Yes	0c	3,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-61%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bde…c710backed Yes	4c	3,081$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52a…7dcbbacked Yes	8c	3,076$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…6f10backed Yes	3c	3,069$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.37	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006b…daa6backed Yes	3c	3,056$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.16	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event