Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4dcf314ee2929e310bf16dc2369888b9ff4967b152ad85ee6b4092ba0e14fa

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $159,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,394 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	5,425$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.33	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	4,517$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	4,126$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.29	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,096$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	2,052$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	1c	1,480$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,453$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	1,346$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.94	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,048$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,044$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	1,034$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	1c	896.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	142	18.3%26 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+124.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	1c	890.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd30b…a2edbacked Yes	1c	709.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event