Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf63fb4414b7ca3ccac35fcd097f90332e009b9a570b1cfae5ecf3547eebd825

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $506,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $262,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $506,037 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2df3…e25abacked Yes	1c	21,584$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe901…107fbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	14,332$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.75	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	0c	14,236$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	13,144$1,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,048.85	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	11,413$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.18	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,662$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	10,499$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	7,233$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.86	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	7,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,828$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.47	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	6,282$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.03	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	2c	5,830$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.64	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b76…a3b1backed Yes	0c	5,723$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,945$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.6	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	4,424$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.46	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	4,000$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	3,763$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.32	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	4c	3,530$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.05	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,455$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.34	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa00…eba1backed Yes	3c	3,357$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,154$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.72	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,937$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.66	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	4c	2,927$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	2,710$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.57	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	2,551$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.91	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,510$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.13	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	2,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	1c	2,214$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.29	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	2,188$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	2,171$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.26	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	7c	2,039$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.64	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,018$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.06	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	7c	1,789$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.22	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	7c	1,500$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,495$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	7c	1,443$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.04	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,431$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.69	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…38b2backed Yes	1c	1,388$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe158…8538backed Yes	8c	1,300$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	1,255$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	9c	1,244$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0146…5ddebacked Yes	8c	1,233$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,229$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	1c	1,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	8c	1,200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	2c	1,180$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,167$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.35	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe28f…be21backed Yes	9c	1,080$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,022$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	6c	1,016$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.8	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58a4…a3c5backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+88.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes	5c	999.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.96	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	998.96$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.93	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	10c	978.31$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.43	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	942.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	9c	920.06$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.78	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…eca5backed Yes	9c	910.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.06	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	3c	909.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	8c	899.96$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	3c	830.65$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes	8c	825.98$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.08	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x769a…0244backed Yes	2c	770$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	3c	699.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	670.93$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	655.67$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	608.36$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.73	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	11c	600.44$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.29	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8048…f48dbacked Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	599.95$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	4c	589.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…abc3backed Yes	3c	582.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	6.3%4 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes	2c	556.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	5c	544.9$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	527.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	9c	517$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.53	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	3c	508.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc66f…b7dabacked Yes	6c	508$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	65	12.3%8 W · 57 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	3c	506.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17b8…b003backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x020d…1a87backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	7c	499.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d50…b166backed Yes	8c	442$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.36	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdffa…1ea3backed Yes	3c	438.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	3c	435.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	12c	432.81$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aed…9f49backed Yes	3c	427.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab49…e23fbacked Yes	5c	425.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30d…8e12backed Yes	3c	419.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77aa…a0b7backed Yes	3c	414.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	3c	412.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event