Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc0edebd6d9de328bbc65d350bbe92c83b8727d4cc6211cf2931bef04cd0f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,323,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $842,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,323,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 0c | 170,133$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.11 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 0c | 56,385$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 48,218$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.34 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb2…b59ebacked Yes | 0c | 28,159$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…1938backed Yes | 1c | 18,994$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb5…4999backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 15,714$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 14,995$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 14,231$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.27 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,583$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 129 | 0.8%1 W · 128 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +675.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…9814backed Yes | 0c | 12,514$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes | 0c | 12,328$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 11,358$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.1 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 11,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed Yes | 1c | 10,982$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,662$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,569$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 136 | 0.7%1 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +635.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,569$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 1c | 10,131$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 9.8%15 W · 138 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.54 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 8,775$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…6c92backed Yes | 0c | 8,609$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,688$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes | 1c | 7,430$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,426$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.9 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…d3b3backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,361$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 5,960$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,497$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.68 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b9…25dfbacked Yes | 7c | 5,435$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.06 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,286$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 5,277$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…4058backed Yes | 10c | 5,049$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.8 | 264 | 10.6%28 W · 236 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed Yes | 1c | 4,979$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 176 | 12.5%22 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…49cebacked Yes | 10c | 4,975$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 0c | 4,576$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 0c | 4,575$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,537$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.19 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,442$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…7f8cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,312$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,242$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.92 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 1c | 4,197$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…eaaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 296 | 8.1%24 W · 272 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dac…37ddbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 3,708$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.99 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 1c | 3,620$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,612$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…6f10backed Yes | 1c | 3,608$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0744…b039backed Yes | 1c | 3,502$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 3,242$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…8652backed Yes | 1c | 3,073$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,050$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…6580backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.95 | 210 | 28.6%60 W · 150 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 6c | 2,854$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes | 12c | 2,845$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 137 | 17.5%24 W · 113 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 2,781$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 2,756$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.45 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…546cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,646$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 2,645$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…8beabacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 4c | 2,474$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 2,460$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Yes | 0c | 2,388$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 2,385$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes | 7c | 2,358$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 2,349$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 2c | 2,346$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 2,214$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…5b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,208$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 2,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…285fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,078$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…ef81backed Yes | 1c | 2,035$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 1c | 2,025$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 244 | 12.7%31 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 3c | 1,980$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…b14bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,971$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.18 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bc…8180backed Yes | 1c | 1,934$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,761$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 4c | 1,752$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,725$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes | 8c | 1,669$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 181 | 16%29 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…3cf1backed Yes | 12c | 1,650$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…fb66backed Yes | 1c | 1,568$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…7144backed Yes | 1c | 1,562$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…10d3backed Yes | 8c | 1,545$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…e0d3backed Yes | 7c | 1,463$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 105 | 6.7%7 W · 98 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…e269backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 7c | 1,416$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 3c | 1,411$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 1c | 1,409$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes | 7c | 1,339$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 96 | 20.8%20 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes | 8c | 1,337$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.