TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,285 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcba3…6055backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost-$509935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes1c3,555$28 inLost-$284798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes0c3,537$13 inLost-$13.0721215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes2c3,345$59 inLost-$59.027966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes2c3,000$48 inLost-$4815812%19 W · 139 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,073$32 inLost-$31.852,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes2c2,000$32 inLost-$32756.7%5 W · 70 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-32.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,727$24 inLost-$23.731,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,374$15 inLost-$15.261,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes2c1,359$20 inLost-$20.491027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c1,345$22 inLost-$22.162595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes2c1,249$28 inLost-$27.787011.4%8 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,088$14 inLost-$14.466915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c995.39$17 inLost-$17.274345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes2c800$18 inLost-$17.618631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes2c701.14$13 inLost-$12.8121818.3%40 W · 178 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c684.43$11 inLost-$11.252114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes3c645.65$20 inLost-$203644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c620.47$11 inLost-$10.621824.9%9 W · 173 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes2c599.94$10 inLost-$10.28314.5%12 W · 71 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$1014218.3%26 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes3c463.43$12 inLost-$1242312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.